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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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TABLE 3 (Continued)
Coefficient0         Coefficientd
Country3                                   Period"3                    b                            a
Bulgaria3                                                1906-1966               -0.49                    43.2
Japan                                                     1920-1961               -0.44                    37.0
Poland3                                                  1898-1967               -0.35                    42.3
U.S.S.R.a                                               1897-1967               -0.47                    54.0
Average		-0.44	44.1
Albania	1955-1968	-0.69	43.8
Ceylon	1948-1967	-0.42	40.9
Hong Kong	1957-1969	-1.44	39.2
Malaysia (West)	1956-1967	-0.96	46.1
Puerto Rico	1949-1969	-0.8	41.8
Ryukyu Islands	1950-1969	-1.15	37.8
Singapore	1949-1969	-1.21	50.2
Taiwan	1954-1969	-1.22	46.4
Trinidad and Tobago	1954-1968	-0.85	41.9
Average (excluding			
Hong Kong)		-0.91	43.6
3Unless otherwise indicated, national territories are as of the dates given. The exceptions are Austria and Hungary (present territory); Czechoslovakia, western Czechoslovakia only, and for years before 1901 the old Austrian territories of Bohemia, Moravia, and Silesia; Poland, territory approximating the "Central Provinces" of the interwar period; U.S.S.R., before World War I, the fifty provinces of European Russia.
^Initial and terminal dates were determined from 3-year averages marking the beginning and ending of continuous declines in the birth rate. Declines occurring prior to 1875 were ignored. For countries seriously affected by war the relevant years were omitted (e.g. 1915-1921 for World War I and 1941-47 for World War II). Dates for the U.S.S.R. are 1897, 1913 and 3-year averages for 1926-28, 1937-39, 1958-1960, and 1966-68.
cThe statistical estimates of average annual reduction of the birth rate. R^ values (not shown) exceed 0.9 for all countries except Ireland, Portugal, Japan, Albania, and Trinidad, indicating that the linear regression model is a good fit to the data except in these countries.
Estimated initial birth rate from linear regression.
eWith the possible exception of the Ryukyu Islands, birth rates in these areas were still declining as of the terminal dates. Puerto Rican data corrected for underregistration.
Sources: Historical data for Europe (13, 14); for 1930-1969, standard U.N. sources, chiefly (3); for Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, and the U.S.S.R., national statistical sources. For the United States (15).
By 1875 fertility reductions were underway in most of western and central Europe and "bottomed out" in the 1930's. In western Europe and the United States the average reduction of the birth rate was only about 0.3 per year. Had earlier experience been included, these countries would have shown even slower reductions in the birth rate. France and Ireland are special cases